 The conflict between Israel and Hamas is an example of a “Wicked Problem” – a problem that is
difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete,
contradictory, and changing requirements that are often
difficult to recognize…an idea or problem that cannot be fixed,
where there is no single solution to the problem…a problem whose
social complexity means that it has no determinable stopping
point…And because of complex interdependencies, the effort to
solve one aspect of a wicked problem may reveal or create other
problems. Due to their complexity, wicked problems are often
characterized by organized irresponsibility”. – Wikipedia, first
defined by Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber in 1973
Beneath Gaza’s immiseration lies anarchy – and a governing
entity, Hamas, that eschews good governance in favor of the
fulfillment of jihadist objectives: the destruction of the
Israeli state and the establishment of an Islamic caliphate.
Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, has been
one of many jihadist entities vying for power in Gaza and in the
local Sunni region. But perhaps because this is the wicked
problem as defined above, it is more productive to view this
jihadist regime in its larger historical context: the Arab
Spring of 2010 and the subsequent uprisings that followed. These
movements grew out of an enormous demographic shift - a baby
boom - that started first in Northern Africa and then eastward
among Sunni governments across the Middle East. The
authoritarian governments in this region were characterized by
stagnant economic growth, restrictive social policies, high
unemployment, poor educational opportunities, and limited upward
mobility for its citizens. The emergence of these terrorist
movements was widely predicted among political scientists who
linked the region’s high fertility rates with social unrest in
the presence of weak social institutions across this region.
Indeed, a surplus of young men with little to lose fueled Al
Qaeda and ISIS.
Not one of these regimes was a democracy, save Israel.
(Tunisia’s current democracy remains “A Work in Progress”,
according to the Brookings Institute.) And true to the actions
of monarchies, theocracies, and authoritarian regimes throughout
history, the use of religious institutions play the important
role of legitimizing illiberal governments like that of Syria,
Saudi Arabia, Iran, and others. Significantly, in Gaza today,
the ruling Hamas regime is considered the most religiously
orthodox of these states. Strict Sharia law imposes daunting
obstacles for human development on a population where almost 50%
are under the age of 18, and where there are ~28 births per
1,000 people in Gaza and 27.67 births per 1,000 in the West Bank
– extremely high in comparison to current global norms. And
given Hamas’s priority of jihadism and the destruction of
Israel, compounded by its failure to invest the money it
receives in humanitarian assistance into institutions such as
hospitals and schools, almost one half of Gaza’s population –
its youth – has become mere canon fodder, and is indoctrinated
with the nihilism of jihadism on the generational road to rage.
The assertion that Israel is an occupier of Gaza needs to be
challenged. Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005. The blockade of
Gaza was established by both Egypt and Israel in 2007 in
response to Hamas’s takeover of Gaza following its electoral win
over Fatah in 2006 – an example of “one vote one time” in that
Hamas has not permitted another election since. The battle
between Gaza and Fatah followed Hamas’s win began in June of
2007. Hamas fighters won and took control of Gaza, while Fatah
officials were taken as prisoners, executed, or expelled.
The Gaza blockade was intended to prevent Hamas from spreading
its jihadist war to Israel and Egypt.
And, as Hamas’s jihadist activities have continued, as recently
as 2021, “…the pro-Hamas outlet Al Mayadeen, reported that the
terrorist group had refused offers for complete lifting of the
blockade in return for a long-term truce following the 2021
Israel–Palestine crisis.” – Wikipedia. Perhaps the most brutal
occupiers are the jihadist forces that, as Golda Meir described,
hate Israel more than they love their children.
But another powerful factor that has provoked Hamas’s bloody
“Hail Mary” attack on Israel on October 7th, 2023 is the effort
to forge a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi
Arabia, a process that is being led by the US. This is where the
real chess game is being played. It is well worth the time to
read the article entitled: “Is a Saudi-Israel Normalization
Agreement on the Horizon?” by the United States Institute for
Peace at:
https://www.usip.org/.../saudi-israel-normalization...
While this normalization agreement has the potential of
reshaping the Middle East and marginalizing the various jihadist
movements that have terrorized the region for decades, the rocks
in the road are many. There are Saudi nuclear demands that call
for no oversight by outside entities, and a commitment that
Israel withdraw settlements. There are mutual security
agreements to be negotiated, and other concessions for
Palestinians – most importantly measures taken toward a
two-state solution. While the Palestinian Authority is not party
to the negotiations, their interests are part of the
negotiations. And there are the interests of other parties in
the region that are being considered. But things have already
begun to change: Saudi Arabia’s first ambassador to the
Palestinian Authority presented credentials to President Mahmoud
Abbas in Ramallah and Israel has sent an official delegation to
Riyadh for a U.N. conference.
But the looming threat posed by Iran and its desire to conquer
the Sunni regions of the Middle East and establish a “Shia
Crescent” from Iran to the Mediterranean Sea have continued to
pose an existential threat to all Sunni led countries in the
Middle East. The normalization agreement currently being
negotiated by the Biden Administration will include some degree
of protection from Iran for these Sunni states, not to mention
securing the US’s access to Saudi oil.
The wicked problem of Israel and Hamas becomes even more complex
once geopolitics are included in the analysis.
In the US, we have a tendency to simplify all issues into a good
versus evil duality, and as a result, the US has impulsively and
with little regard for the consequences of it actions, blundered
into devastating conflicts in the region. The 2003 war in Iraq
is a bloody example of our failure or our refusal to grasp the
complexities of the region. But the US’s blunders
notwithstanding, the wicked problem concerning Gaza and the
lands of the West Bank has raged on for over 75 years in the
Middle East and has eluded peace for even longer. It is thought
that the normalization agreement the Biden Administration is
negotiating with Saudi Arabia is a major step on the road to
regional peace.
But for decades the impulse to install autocratic leadership in
liberal democratic societies like ours or like that of Israel is
being acted out on an increasingly dangerous international
stage. Strongmen like Netanyahu and Donald Trump are mirrored by
far right autocrats in Hungary and Russia.
As we assess the impact on society of both the Trump/Republican
era in the US and the Netanyahu/Likud government in Israel, we
see similar legislation from both that is taking our respective
societies toward far-right authoritarian rule. In Israel,
demonstrations against Netanyahu’s attempt to weaken the
judiciary and his many indictments for corruption, led to the
government’s inattention on security issues – and the
establishment of an opening for Hamas to attack. In the US, the
Insurrection on January 6th, 2021 demonstrated the consequences
of unchecked political propaganda by Donald Trump and the
Republican Party. The intention was to change our actual
narrative from one of peace and economic growth to the urgent
need to assert martial law and enable Donald Trump to overturn
democratic processes and seize our government. Moreover, in both
cases, the use of fringe orthodox religious groups provided
sufficient majorities to win elections and to seize power.
In many ways America’s decline is even more apparent: Republican
opposition to gun control has resulted the arming of civilians,
implying that local policing is failing. This, notwithstanding
the fact that crime is on the decrease and has been for decades
in the US. Trump’s portrayal of his American Carnage narrative
has fueled terrorist groups in the US that, though not as
equipped, trained, or numerous as Hamas, are equally as
anti-government and nihilistic as the numerous jihadist
terrorist organizations operating in Gaza.
We are now facing the tragic loss of our democracy to Donald
Trump’s nihilistic political movement in the US, and Israel is
now at war with its longstanding nihilistic enemy, Hamas. It is
thought that Benjamin Netanyahu will be removed from power for
his poor leadership, his corruption, and his failure to protect
Israelis from external threats. As long as Donald Trump remains
out of jail and continues to be a viable candidate for the
Republican nomination for president, the US faces its own
existential terrorist threat. And what might emerge at the end
of Trump’s gun could be far worse than anything we are familiar
with in the Middle East.
Image: M.C. Escher, 1935 |
